Prepared by: Asmita Dahal, GRIT
Zimbabwe's drought has become more frequent and severe, significantly affecting agriculture, water resources, and livelihoods. Rising temperatures lead to increased evaporation and reduced soil moisture, while disrupted rainfall patterns caused by climate change intensify drought conditions. These factors have led to crop failures, food shortages, and economic losses, particularly in agriculture, contributing heavily to the country’s GDP. The situation has worsened with recurring droughts, including severe events in 1947, 1991–1992, and 2015–2016. Looking ahead, Zimbabwe is expected to face more intense and prolonged droughts, posing significant challenges to food security. To mitigate these impacts, strategies such as renewable energy adoption, sustainable agriculture, and improved water management are crucial for enhancing resilience to future droughts.
Introduction
Drought has been an issue in Zimbabwe that keeps on recurring. It severely impacts agriculture, water resources, and livelihoods. The frequency and intensity of droughts have gone high in recent decades. Global warming has played a crucial role in worsening these conditions. This report explores the link between drought in Zimbabwe and global warming. This report focuses on droughts' causes, impacts, and historical events and possible solutions for predicted future drought events.
The Climatic Context of Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe has a mostly tropical climate. The climate of Zimbabwe is influenced by seasonal fluctuations in rainfall and temperature. Usually, from November to March, the country experiences a rainy season. The rainy season is followed by a dry period. However, from the late 20th century, the rainy season has become more unpredictable. And the dry seasons have extended. This marks a significant change in climatic patterns due to global warming (Mukwada et al., 2020).
Global Warming and Drought in Zimbabwe
Rising Temperatures
The global average temperature is increasing, mainly due to global warming. This phenomenon is seen in Zimbabwe. Higher temperatures cause an increase in evaporation from soil and water bodies. This reduces moisture availability in soil, thus contributing to prolonged droughts. According to studies, Zimbabwe's temperatures have increased by an approximate of 1.5°C over the past century (Dube & Phiri, 2021).
Disrupted Rainfall Patterns
Global warming is disturbing rainfall patterns in Zimbabwe, causing irregular and reduced rainfall. This disruption is mainly because of fluctuations in atmospheric circulation and weak monsoon flows in southern Africa (Calvin et al., 2019). These factors have resulted in less rainfall during the rainy season and prolonged dryness, further intensifying drought conditions.
Reduced Agricultural Productivity
Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector is facing terrible consequences because of prolonged droughts, as it is heavily rain dependent. Global warming has led to unpredictable rainfall and soil moisture is depleting continuously. There is a significant drop in crop production, too. One of the staple food crops of Zimbabwe, Maize, has been majorly affected. This has led to food shortages. And eventually, reliance on international aid is increasing (Masuku & Singh, 2022).
History of Droughts in Zimbabwe
Over the past decade, Zimbabwe has faced a series of drought events. These events significantly impact people, the economy, and the environment. The historical records highlight the severe droughts during the early 20th century, particularly in 1947, 1982–1984, 1991–1992, and 2015–2016 (Chikoore et al., 2018). The 1991–1992 droughts had rainfall levels depleting to less than 50% of average annual rainfall. This event is considered one of the most catastrophic drought events in Zimbabwe. As a result, widespread crop failures, water shortages, and the loss of livestock extensively impacted food security and rural livelihoods (Unganai & Mason, 2002).
In the regions like Zimbabwe, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon has contributed to droughts in the past. For example, the 2015–2016 droughts accompanied a strong El Niño event. It further worsened the declining water resources and agricultural outputs (Mazvimavi, 2019).
Impacts of Drought on Zimbabwe
Economic Impacts
Zimbabwe’s GDP has declined because of agricultural losses from drought, as over 15% of the country’s economy is handled by agriculture alone. Due to water scarcity and decreased grazing land, the livestock sector has encountered significant losses.
Social and Health Consequences
Malnutrition rates have increased in recent times as drought has diminished food availability and worsened water shortages. The hygiene and sanitation sectors are also impacted, and exposure to waterborne diseases has increased (Mukwada et al., 2020).
Ecological Effects
As ecosystems struggle to adapt to rapidly changing conditions, the place faces desertification and loss of biodiversity because of the prolonged drought. (Mukwada et al., 2020).
Possible Future Droughts in Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe is prone to facing more frequent and intense droughts in the future, as predicted by climate models. This is driven by the ongoing impacts of global warming. Water Stress and agricultural productivity are expected to be exacerbated due to rising temperatures, reduced soil moisture, and disrupted rainfall patterns (Dube & Phiri, 2021). By the middle of the 21st century, the number of consecutive dry days during Zimbabwe's growing season is expected to increase. This will seriously challenge food security in the country (IPCC, 2021).
Also, global temperature is increasing and will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This increases the likelihood of severe droughts. Regions like Zimbabwe are heavily dependent on rain for agriculture. As a result, these regions will be severely affected as droughts become more prolonged and intense.
Mitigation Strategies and Adaptation
Renewable Energy Initiatives
Renewable energy adoption must be initiated to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Global warming mitigation efforts should focus on these aspects. Zimbabwe could alleviate its reliance on fossil fuels as it has great potential for solar energy.
Sustainable Agriculture Practices
Promoting sustainable agriculture techniques, such as conservation agriculture and drought-resistant crops, can enhance Zimbabwe’s resilience to drought.
Water Management Strategies
Improved water management, including the construction of dams and reservoirs, can prevent water scarcity during prolonged dry periods.
Conclusion
Zimbabwe’s drought is an alarming issue linked to global warming. Due to rising temperatures and disrupted rainfall patterns, the country is facing widespread socioeconomic and ecological impacts. To mitigate drought and its consequences in Zimbabwe, more focus should be given to renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and efficient water management. Global cooperation should be enhanced to address the root causes of global warming. This will play a vital role in ensuring Zimbabwe's climate resilience.
References
- Calvin, D., et al. (2019). Climate change and rainfall variability in southern Africa. Journal of African Climate Studies, 17(3), 215-228.
- Chikoore, H., et al. (2018). Meteorological drought in Southern Africa: Historical and future trends. Climate Dynamics, 52(4), 2017–2030.
- Dube, T., & Phiri, C. (2021). The role of global warming in Zimbabwe's climate shifts. Environmental Research and Development, 25(1), 112-127.
- IPCC. (2021). Climate change 2021: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press.
- Masuku, T., & Singh, R. (2022). Agricultural adaptation to climate change in Zimbabwe. African Agricultural Review, 19(2), 98-105.
- Mukwada, G., et al. (2020). Impacts of drought on livelihoods in Zimbabwe. Climate and Development, 12(4), 347-359.
- Mazvimavi, D. (2019). El Niño and its implications for drought in Zimbabwe. African Journal of Meteorology, 32(2), 120-135.
- Unganai, L. S., & Mason, S. J. (2002). Historical perspective on drought in Zimbabwe. International Journal of Climatology, 22(10), 1229–1250.